Sparkle Stories — What-If Sandbox

Drag the sliders to see what each decision does to revenue, members, and value over time. Built on our real numbers.

Today: 1,934 members
Churn 7.2%/mo
ARPU $17.44
MRR $33,729
How to read this: the solid line is your scenario; the faded line is what happens if nothing changes. The gap between them is the difference your decision makes. Everything is an estimate to think with, not a promise — the price–churn link especially is an assumption you can tune under Advanced.

Your decisions

Start with these three. Open Advanced for the finer dials.

0%
A cut lowers churn a little; a rise raises it (tune that link under Advanced).
0%
About 29% of churn is declined cards. How much do we win back with retries & card updates?
0%
Of people who choose to cancel, what share do we keep with a gated offer?
Advanced dials & assumptions

These shape the model. The price–churn sensitivity is the big one: it decides whether a price rise helps or hurts.

0.5×
0 = price doesn't affect churn. 1 = a 10% price rise lifts churn ~10%. Higher = members are very price-sensitive.
0.3×
How much a price rise slows new signups (and a cut speeds them).
0%
Onboarding, engagement, better content — reduces the "chose to leave" group.
100
Our growth engine (affiliates, marketing). Today we add ~100/month.

Starting point (edit if our real numbers change):

1934
7.2%
$17.44
29%
Members
—
Monthly revenue
—
Annual revenue
—
Member lifetime value
—

Members over time

Your scenario If nothing changes

About these numbers. The starting point is real: about 1,934 paying members, ~7.2% monthly churn, ~$17.44 average revenue per member, drawn from 15 months of Stripe payments. Everything the sliders project forward is a directional estimate to support a decision, not a forecast. The most uncertain assumption is how strongly price affects churn and signups — we don't have clean data on that for Sparkle, so it's left adjustable on purpose. Saved members are modeled as retained at the current rate; in practice they'd pay the offer price, a small refinement. Use this to compare directions and sizes, then test the promising ones for real.